We now have the latest Maine Real Estate Information System statistics. Let’s remember these numbers are through October so we’re not actually looking at what’s happening right NOW.

The short version is that the pattern continues. For the month of October, unit sales statewide were down some 12% from last year.

Looking at the rolling quarter (August through October) we learn that Piscataquis County is experiencing an 8% decrease. Somerset is down 5% and Penobscot just under 4%.

Interesting stuff?

Here’s something more interesting, particularly if you are considering listing your property for sale. Most of us remember “supply and demand” from our high school economics class. In real estate, we can use something called an “absorbtion rate” to consider statistically what might happen when we list based on supply and demand.

For no particular reason I’ll use Dover-Foxcroft as my example. It’s a great town that happens to be the county seat for Piscataquis County. My example uses MREIS data and does not include properties sold by owners or real estate companies who are not part of the Multiple Listing System.

When I wrote this in late December 2007 there were 84 residential properties “on the market” (for sale) in Dover Foxcroft. During the last 6 months, 54 residential properties “sold.” That means an average of one home has sold each week. (We’re going to keep this very basic. Statistics can make your eyes glaze over fairly quickly. Staying basic also means the numbers and conclusions are “debatable” but we are more interested in the concept than the actual numbers.)

The absorbtion rate is most simply defined as the number of weeks it will take to “absorb” (sell) the current inventory at the current rate of sales.

With 84 homes on the market (assuming no more are listed and none are taken off the market) it will take 84 weeks (that’s about 20 months) for all those properties to sell. So if you are considering putting your property on the market… think you might have to be a little patient?

Another way of looking at this: Statistically, four properties are going to sell next month in Dover Foxcroft. Those four buyers have over 80 to choose from! Who wants to predict which four are going to sell?

By the way, the most “proper” way to calculate absorbtion rate is to use the previous four week’s sales. I had to go back further because there were no sales in the immediate previous four weeks! So based on the most recent data, the absorbtion rate is actually much lower.

Again, in this example we are talking in general numbers. This type of analysis has the most meaning when we “drill down” and look at markets within the market. It’s possible a new listing (the 85th) becomes one of the first to sell. If you are considering selling your home the question becomes “How do my agent and I make that happen?”

Let’s cut through some of the media rhetoric, shall we? You certainly don’t have to turn too many newspaper pages or visit too many web sites to hear analysis of the the horrible housing market. It’s still one of the most frequently asked questions I get – “How’s the market?” If it didn’t sound a bit smart-mouthed I’d be tempted to reply “Does it matter?”

Regardless of how sarcastic it sounds, it’s a really good question.

For most buyers, market conditions are not a major factor in the decision whether or not to buy. The reason is simple. Most are buying a home primarily as a place to live. So when we reduce the question to it’s fundamental form we have the right emphasis. When is it a good time to buy a place to live?

I can make the answer even simpler than the question: Continue reading »

If you are considering the purchase of property located in a Shorelands Zone, you are of course aware of a number of regulations including limitations on how much vegetation you can clear.  While most people respect the intent of these laws, there are others who look for loopholes. Sellers have done this using the logic that they could increased the property’s value far more than the potential fine and “come out ahead.”  I actually did hear someone advise a buyer that they could “go ahead and do what you want” with the explanation that whatever fine was levied would “just be an added cost.”

There are so manythings wrong with that logic!

And now, thanks to Public Law 92 “An act to require the replacement of trees cut in a Shorelands Zone” it won’t work. Not only will the property owner be fined, he or she will likely have to mitigate the violation by replanting the trees cut.

For a summary of the act and more information visit:

http://www.maine.gov/dep/blwq/docstand/sz/is-restoration.htm

Let’s talk about buyers! Or maybe more accurately, let’s talk about the people who are “in the market” for real estate.

We could, of course, create a potentially lengthy list. In fancy terms it’s called “market segmentation.” As an agent I’m certainly interested because different categories (segments) require different types and levels of client service. If your property is for sale you are certainly interested because you and your agent better know where to look for a buyer.

Let’s start with basics. What, after all, is a buyer? Before you consider that a dumb question, let me tell you that I can name a handful of “customers” who have been “in the market” for years. In at least one case, the individual just likes looking at houses. I’d hardly call her a “buyer.”

A working definition of a buyer is this: A buyer is Continue reading »

Whether you are considering a move to Piscataquis County or already live here… you’ll want to know about these resources:

For an electronic version (including back issues, lots of topics) of a newsletter about gardening, check out:

http://www.umext.maine.edu/piscataquis/gardening/newsletter.htm

and a “companion” version that has more of a farming focus:

http://www.umext.maine.edu/piscataquis/farming/newsletter.htm

Both are put together by the Cooperative Extension Service… and if you are interested in either, you’ll get a good sense of what gardening/farming is like in the area.

One of the email newsletters I received this morning compelled that my real estate web site “must be the local authority on community and lifestyle information.” Now that’s an interesting challenge and I did think about it some. Those who know me won’t be surprised at a few of the questions I considered. How large is a community? We tend to think town = community, but not so much any more. So for that matter, What is a community and what do you need to consider when looking to purchase real estate? Continue reading »